Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Iran should expect more 'unnatural' events in 2012, Gantz says





IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz warns that pressure on Iran will increase this year • Russia joins concerns over Iran nuclear program • Former U.S. presidential adviser: Obama is willing to use force to stop Iran. 
Gideon Allon, Eli Leon and News Agencies
An explosion at an Iranian missile base near Tehran in November 2011 was seen as a serious setback for Iran's missile program. 
| Photo credit: AP

Venezuelian President Hugo Chavez with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
 at a press conference on Tuesday. 
|
 Photo credit: AP

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 11, 2012

DF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said on Tuesday that Iran should expect more "unnatural" events in 2012, an apparent reference to a spate of explosions that occurred recently in or near Iranian nuclear and military facilities in the country.

Less than a day after Gantz spoke, an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed by a bomb placed on his car on Wednesday in an attack Tehran's deputy governor blamed on Israel, raising the diplomatic temperature in a stand-off with the West over Iran's nuclear program.

Speaking at a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, Gantz said, "Iran is currently facing increasing pressure from the international community. The pressure is affecting the Iranian leadership, but there is no sign that the pressure is causing Iran to reconsider its nuclear program. 2012 will be critical for the continuation of Iran's nuclear program, internal Iranian leadership changes, increasing pressure by the international community and unnatural incidents occurring in Iran."

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That international pressure on Iran received a boost on Tuesday when Russia expressed "regret and worry" over Iran's announcement to begin enriching uranium at the Fordo site, an underground facility near Qom.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, Dennis Ross, the former U.S. presidential adviser on Middle East affairs who currently works with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said on Tuesday that despite the U.S. preference for taking the diplomatic track with Iran, no one should rule out a military option by Western powers against Iran's nuclear program. "The Iranians should never think that there’s a reluctance to use the force," Ross said.

Ross believes that Israel can operate on its own against Iran. “They certainly have the capability by themselves to set back the Iranian nuclear program,” Ross said.

Ross' comments came on the heels of a confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, that Iran had started enriching uranium up to 20 percent at an underground facility at Fordo, near the Shiite Muslim holy city of Qom. The agency said all atomic material there was under its surveillance.

"The fact that the IAEA has made clear that they are enriching to a level that is inappropriate at Fordo is obviously a problem," State Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters at her daily briefing Monday.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned Iran on Tuesday for enriching uranium to a level that can be upgraded more quickly for use in a nuclear weapon. She said Tehran was breaking its international obligations and demonstrating a “blatant disregard for its responsibilities.” Clinton said “there is no plausible justification” for its decision to increase enrichment to 20 percent, which “brings Iran a significant step closer to having the capability to produce weapons-grade highly enriched uranium.”

Concerning repeated Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most strategic shipping lane, through which 33% of the world's crude oil is shipped daily - U.S. Navy Commander Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert expressed concern on Tuesday over a possible confrontation with the Iranian navy. "If you ask me what keeps me awake at night, it's the Strait of Hormuz and the business going on in the Arabian Gulf," Greenert said.

Iran has threatened to close the strait on several occasions and both the U.S. and Britain have responded that such an act would cross a red line and would not be tolerated.

Keeping up the international pressure on Iran, EU foreign ministers are scheduled to meet on Jan. 23 -- earlier than planned -- to finalize their plan for an embargo on Iranian crude oil. Commenting on the plan, a European diplomat said, "We are sure we can come to an agreement concerning the sanctions until the 23rd." Members of the EU are also discussing financial sanctions on Iran, and how they would deal with the Central Bank of Iran.

Japan is considering joining the oil embargo on Iran as well, and has asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to maintain its supply of crude oil if it decides to join the embargo.
Despite Russia's growing concern over Iran's nuclear program, its foreign ministry called on the international community to avoid taking active measures against Iran. "We hope that Iran will heed our view of the need for continuous cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and for the immediate renewal of serious international talks on Iran's nuclear program, without preconditions," a foreign ministry statement said.

China, Iran's largest crude oil client, also urged the West to avoid taking action against Iran. Chen Xiaodong, a senior Chinese foreign ministry official, said that a war over Iran's nuclear program would result in a worldwide economic disaster. "We are calling on all the relevant parties to remain calm, show restraint, refrain from taking action that will make the situation worse and work together to prevent a war," said Xiaodong.

Iran courting supporters
In the midst of growing international concern and action, Iran continues to court sympathetic countries. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega his "brother president" and Nicaragua a kindred revolutionary nation as he arrived Tuesday for the inauguration of the Central America leader's new term.

Traveling to Managua after defending his country's nuclear program during a stop in Venezuela, Ahmadinejad drew parallels between the people of Iran and Nicaragua, saying they are "on the road to fight for the establishment of security and justice."

On Monday, Ahmadinejad joined his ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in accusing the U.S. and its allies of using a dispute over Iran's enrichment of uranium to unjustly threaten the country. Both leaders dismissed U.S. concerns about Iran's intentions in the Middle East and its growing diplomatic ties with Chavez and his allies in Latin America. "They accuse us of being warmongers," Chavez said. "They're the threat."

The Iranian leader also plans to visit Cuba and Ecuador on a trip to promote relationships with some of his close friends in Washington's neighborhood.

U.S. navy rescues more Iranian sailors
Meanwhile, a U.S. Coast Guard cutter rescued six Iranian mariners from a vessel in distress in the Persian Gulf, the second such incident in a week of tension punctuated by the Islamic republic’s death sentence to a young Iranian-American man.

The rescue was another reminder of U.S. efforts to demonstrate the humanitarian value of its naval presence in the Gulf.

Last Thursday, the U.S. Navy rescued 13 Iranian fishermen who had been held captive by pirates in the northern Arabian Sea, just outside the Gulf, for more than 40 days. The rescue occurred just days after Tehran warned the United States to keep its warships out of the Gulf. The fishermen were sent on their way and the 15 pirates were taken aboard the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis.

The rescue on Tuesday was the fifth time in 14 months that American naval forces have aided Iranians at sea, according to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command. The largest rescue was on Feb. 3, 2011 when the guided-missile cruiser USS Cape St. George provided assistance to 16 Iranian mariners on a fishing vessel in the Gulf of Oman.

In the latest incident, Pentagon press secretary George Little said the Iranians aboard a cargo boat known as a dhow about 50 miles southeast of the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr used flares and flashlights to hail the cutter Monomoy at 3 a.m. local time. The vessel’s master indicated that his engine room was flooding and “deemed not seaworthy,” Little said.

In a more detailed account, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, based in Bahrain, said two of the Iranians were rescued from the dhow and four from a life raft tied to the vessel’s stern. After being fed and provided blankets and water, the Iranians were transferred to an Iranian coast guard vessel, the Naji 7.

In its written account, Naval Forces Central Command quoted the dhow’s owner, identified as Hakim Hamid-Awi, as telling the Americans, “Without your help, we were dead. Thank you for all that you did for us.”

In that account, a civilian interpreter aboard the Monomoy - a ship assigned to a naval task force of the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command - quoted the captain of the Iranian coast guard vessel as saying he “sends his regards and thanks to our captain and all crew members for assisting and taking care of the Iranian sailors. Wishes us the best and thanks us for our cooperation.”

Iran sentences alleged U.S. spy to death
Washington and Tehran are also at odds over an Iranian court’s death sentence Monday for Amir Hekmati, a 28-year-old former military translator who was born in Arizona and graduated from high school in Michigan. Iran says Hekmati is a CIA spy who tried to incriminate Iran in terrorist activity; the Obama administration flatly rejects the accusations.

Iran on Tuesday confirmed the decision to the U.S.’s Swiss representatives in Tehran, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said. Switzerland acts as a go-between in such situations, representing American interests in Iran because the U.S. and Iran have no diplomatic relations.

It is the first time Iran has handed down a sentence of capital punishment to a U.S. citizen since the Islamic Revolution 33 years ago. Hekmati’s family says he was in Iran visiting his grandmothers.

“We strongly condemn the death sentence verdict given to Mr. Hekmati,” Nuland told reporters. “We maintain, as we have from the beginning, that these charges against him are a fabrication. We call on the Iranian authorities to release him immediately.”